In his morning note he confessed that he needed to rewind to the tech bubble to confirm what he already knew about early bear market action:
"...I didn’t quite have a keen appreciation for that historical reminder until I went back to that all-time bubble high and re-examined consensus behavior on the initial big bounces. It takes more than 2 months to change what bubble bulls need or want to believe."Also, per the below, the man does not lack conviction:
"Back in 2000 when you had your first step down from the top, at every single pop people buy fewer and fewer of the former bubble stocks until they’re all shot for dead.
Understand that while you’re panting and having FOMO, we’re not going back to the all time bubble highs."I, as you know, presently share McCullough's data-driven thesis, but of course I remain open to all possibilities. The data will dictate the probabilities...
Note: FOMO = Fear Of Missing Out