Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Pre-Market Note, And The Headline of the Day (maybe of the year)

Equity futures are rallying hard this morning. Headlines say on better COVID news. JPM reported a big miss on earnings, and announced it's set aside $8.29 billion for bad loans (twice expectations), but booked better than expected trading revenue (no surprise given market volume/volatility in Q1).

Bottom line: We remain in the hope phase, and the "smart money" has gotten a bit ahead of itself on the short side; as folks are still getting sucked in and sparking rallies that have to be covered. I.e., over-extended shorts are (in having to cover) exacerbating the latest rallies in a big way. 

From yesterday's note (on currently high short interest):
"Of course this potentially sets the stage for more violent upside spikes on any positive headlines."

The VIX, dropping below 40 (but still dangerously high!) is pushing the bullish sentiment this morning as well...

The headline today that supports the “smart money” thesis:

“IMF Says Great Lockdown Recession Likely Worst Since the Great Depression”
But, again, assuming we’re indeed experiencing your classic bear market retracement rally (the hope phase), it  -- strategically pumped by Wall Street firms (who were caught long coming in) -- has yet to play itself out…

Gold and silver (silver big time) are rallying, copper is as well. The dollar’s down, treasuries are mixed… Asia, save for India, rallied hard last night. Europe, save for the UK, is up this morning...

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