Saturday, April 18, 2020

Quote of the Day

I've learned, at times the hard way, over the past 35 years that there's so much more to assessing probabilities for financial markets than securities' price movements themselves. I'd argue, despite the fact that we do our share of technical analysis, that, of the things we analyze in our daily course of business, securities' price movements are the least telling.

I'm discovering many a-ha!s relating to how we approach markets in Ben Lindbergh's can't-put-down The MVP Machine:  emphasis mine...
Although the term “Moneyball” has come to be associated with specific strategies the A’s deemed most advantageous, it was never actually tied to any one method of team building or in-game management. It was more of a philosophy, one aimed at finding inefficiencies wherever they lay. “When people think of sabermetrics and Moneyball, a lot of it is what they see on the field, the way the game is played,” says Long, who has consulted for multiple teams since departing the Padres. “And most of [the value] is really off the field.”
When people think of the stock market, a lot of it is what they see on the screen, the way the game is traded, the way prices move. While most of what's valuable, what's telling, is really found off the screen, in the real economy...

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