Monday, April 6, 2020

Pre-Market Note

Here's from my pre-market log entry this morning (recall from our videos that being "short" means selling borrowed shares on a bet that the market's going to drop. If you're wrong you can lose a ton. Closing a short position means buying back the shorted stock, which -- when short interest is high -- will add substantial oomph to a rally):

Futures are screaming higher this morning on evidence that the global covid curve is flattening, on the prospects for an oil deal this week (although oil isn’t adding to last week’s gains [-4% this morning]), and on Japan coming in with a big round of stimulus. 

Precisely the kind, and degree (although could've been higher based on current short positioning), of bear market bounce, amid the catalysts (covid improvement and stimulus), we continue to expect going forward.

Exacerbating the move higher in the pre-market is the fact that traders are now (finally) net short SPX futures. I.e., they got squeezed last night and panicked! 

Extremely high NYSE and SPY short interest will see this carry into today’s cash session.

Non-Commercial Futures Traders Net S&P 500 Positioning:

NYSE Short Interest:

SPY Short Interest:

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