Thursday, April 16, 2020

Pre-market note

US Equity futures trading moderately higher pre-market, going from red to green on the 5.5 million jobless claims number. Remarkable! Both the number and the fact that the market traded higher on the news. Clearly, this remains a market mesmerized by the belief in stimulus and lulled by 11 years of buy-the-dip success.

Conventional commonsense says fundamentals will ultimately prevail. Per yesterday’s weekly message, the long-term ramifications of them not are troubling.

Gold volatility has plunged the past few weeks, making gold very investible right here. Which, along with other indicators, confirms that we're past the liquidation phase, and makes our GLD position a very smart play, given the macro backdrop.

Asian equities were mixed last night, Europe’s higher across the board this morning. Commodities (ag excluded) are up, save for palladium (-1.1%). The dollar index is up, although USD itself is mixed across the global spectrum. Treasuries are rallying (makes sense given the data) -- globally, save for the UK and Germany, the same...

Note: To the extent that I express my short-term outlook on markets, a sector or a commodity in my log entries, these are not to be the least bit construed as trade recommendations for the reader. They are, under present conditions in particular, subject to change without notice. What might appear to the reader as a viable trade idea today, could be something I'll do an about face on -- as new information presents itself -- tomorrow, with no prior warning. I share excerpts from my notes only when I deem them useful in terms of helping our clients maintain proper perspective.

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