Thursday, April 9, 2020

The Multi-Trillion Dollar Question

In my pre-market note this morning I stated what I view as the "multi-trillion dollar question":
"Of course the multi-trillion dollar question is, amid what'll be the worst recession since the Great Depression, will Fed, and fiscal, intervention save stocks from their third -50% bear market experience in a row? The question of course begs a ‘no’ answer, but then again, stimulus measures this go-round come with zero limits."
Hedgeye's Keith McCullough in his macro commentary this morning just inspired me to re-post it and offer up his more direct rendition:
"After the longest U.S. economic cycle, while putting the most amount of debt on corporations in world history, and now the most amount of debt on the Federal Reserves balance sheet in U.S. history, and the most fiscal spending in U.S. history, what could possibly go wrong if the U.S. economic cycle after 129 months, like it did after 120 months in 2000, just doesn't recover? Take a deep breath and think about that."
It's critically important amid this huge volatility (in both directions) that we remain patient, calm, cool and collected -- as we explore the key questions (such as those above) while remaining immersed in the data as things play out.

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