Monday, December 7, 2020

Morning Note: All Else Equal...

Asian equities traded mostly higher overnight, with 10 of the 16 markets we track closing in the green.

Europe's mixed as Brexit trade negotiations have hit an 11th-hour snag: 10 of the 19 bourses we track trading lower as I type.

U.S. major averages, save for the Nasdaq, are leaning lower: Dow down 160 points (0.53%), S&P 500 down 0.11%, Nasdaq up 0.43%, Russell 2000 down 0.21%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is up 5.29%. VXN (Nasdaq i.v.) is up 2.85%.

Oil futures are down 1.21%, gold's up 1.29%, silver's up 1.30%, copper futures are down 0.58% and the ag complex is down 0.78%.

The 10-year treasury is up (yield down) and the dollar is up a titch, 0.08%.

Led by gold, silver, utilities, AT&T and tech stocks, but dragged by energy, Asia-Pac equities, ag commodities, financials and banks, our core portfolio is off 0.18% to start the day.

Investing icon Howard Marks, in his essential Mastering the Market Cycle, speaks to our latest messaging around the excessively-high optimism presently priced into the stock market:  emphasis mine...

"...regardless of what’s going on with regard to the economy and company profits (that is, as the academics say, ceteris paribus or “all other things being equal”), the outlook for returns will be better when investors are depressed and fearful (and thus allow asset prices to fall) and worse when they’re euphoric and greedy (and drive prices upward)."
Have a great day!

No comments:

Post a Comment