Thursday, December 3, 2020

Morning Note: The Torment 😎

Asian equities traded mostly higher overnight, with 12 of the 16 markets we track closing in the green.

Europe, well, not so much. 10 of the 19 bourses we follow are in the red so far this morning.

U.S. major averages are solidly in the green early in the session: Dow up 142 points (0.47%), S&P 500 up 0.17%, Nasdaq up 0.35%, Russell 2000 up 0.99%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is down 1.18%. VXN (Nasdaq i.v.) is down 0.69%.

Oil futures are up 0.11%, gold's down 0.11%, silver's down 0.85%, copper futures are up 0.15% and the ag complex is down 0.32%.

The 10-year treasury is up (yield down), while the dollar's taking a hit, down 0.53%.

Led by energy, emerging market equities. industrials, Asia-Pac equities and banks, our core portfolio is up 0.31% to start the day. Its main laggards are silver, base metals, ag commodities, Verizon and utilities.

The latest PMIs (Purchasing Managers Index) around the globe have been, on balance, positive. I.e., economies are recovering and are expected to continue to over the coming months. One virtually across the board consistency we're seeing as we dig into those surveys is notably rising input costs, which adds support to my inflation narrative as we move into 2021. 

And that, make no mistake, will be a challenge for the Fed going forward: How to continue to provide monetary, and to fund fiscal, stimulus in virtual perpetuity -- essentially fanning the inflation flame -- while, at the same time, dealing with the natural corresponding fall in bonds/rise in interest rates.

I think I'll explore that a bit in tomorrow's macro update...

Here's one more from Seneca. Speaks to the torment (just kidding, we love what we do!) that is portfolio management:

"Beasts avoid the dangers which they see, and when they have escaped them are free from care; but we men torment ourselves over that which is to come as well as over that which is past."

Have a great day!

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