Monday, December 28, 2020

Quick Afternoon Update

Typically, holiday trading isn't worth reporting on, so take this one with a grain of salt.

But since I went there this morning, and things have notably changed as the session's worn on, I thought I'd give you a quick update.

This morning I mentioned that despite a huge by history's standard "stimulus" boost announced over the weekend, trading volume by itself says "blah." 

That's still the case: 26% below the 20-day average, 15% below the 5-day.

I suggested that breadth was a bullish silver lining at the start of the day; well, that's what's changed.

20 minutes before the close, 40+% of the S&P 500's members (and roughly half of the Nasdaq's) are in the red. Notably, energy and materials have rolled over. Gold, by the way, has reversed direction as well.

Plus, also notably, down volume on the New York Stock Exchange makes up 56% of today's action.

Now, considering the above, one wouldn't expect the Dow to be up 221 points (if at all), which it is.    (However, I should note that the Russell 2000 is actually down 0.37% as I type.)

Although, considering it's 2020 -- the new all-time record year for concentration in a small number of stocks; taking the record from 1999 (a statistic that, by itself, should provoke pause in the mind of any thoughtful investor) -- well, makes perfect sense...

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