Friday, December 4, 2020

Morning Note: One Common Theme to Crises

Just the numbers this morning... well, I'll probably throw in a quote... then our weekly macro update later today (tomorrow at the latest).

Asian equities were mostly higher overnight, with 10 of the 16 markets we track closing in the green.

Europe's nearly all green, 17 of the 19 bourses we follow trading up so far this morning.

U.S. major averages are higher across the board. Dow up 159 points (0.43%), S&P 500 up 0.62%, Nasdaq up 0.41%, Russell 2000 up 1.46%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is down 2.16%. VXN (Nasdaq i.v.) is down 1.02%.

Oil futures are up 1.03%, gold's down 0.32%, silver's down 0.16%, copper futures are up 0.92% and the ag complex is down 0.88%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is off 0.07%.

Led by energy, AT&T, materials, banks, financials and industrials, our core portfolio is up 0.54% to start the day. Ag commodities, gold, Verizon, utilities, the yen and silver are the main laggards.

Here's Reinhardt and Rogoff in their critically acclaimed This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly on that broken record we've been playing herein ad nauseum since summer 2019:

"If there is one common theme to the vast range of crises we consider in this book, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether it be by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom."
Have a great day!

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