Friday, December 11, 2020

Morning Note: How Bubbles Form

Asian stocks traded mostly higher overnight, with 12 of the 16 markets we track closing in the green.

European equities, with a possible no-trade-deal Brexit on traders minds, is trading mostly lower so far this morning, with 14 of the 19 bourses we follow in the red.

U.S. major averages are (save for the Russell) leaning lower to start the day: Dow down 44 points (0.15%), SP500 down 0.33%, Nasdaq down 0.47%, Russell 2000 up 0.17%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is up 2.13%. VXN (Nasdaq i.v.) is up 1.23%.

Oil futures are up 0.24%, gold's up 0.62%, sliver's up 0.36%, copper futures are down 1.60% and the ag complex is up 0.26%.

The 10-year treasury is up (yield down) and the dollar is up 0.11%.

Led by gold, the yen, silver, agriculture and industrials -- but dragged more-so by base metals, energy, financials, Verizon and banks -- our core portfolio is off 0.18% as I type.

You've no doubt noticed in these morning notes how, on a daily basis, our core portfolio -- diversified as it is -- nearly always holds both winning and losing positions. Think about that as you consider the following thoughts that I recorded while compiling my notes, statistics, etc., as I prepare to write our 2020 year-end letter:

"It’s of course our aim that every single position in our clients’ portfolios makes sense, recognizing that they won’t appear to every single day."
"When conditions dictate that we hedge via options and/or within asset classes, if the risks/events we’re hedging against don’t come to pass we may miss out on (catch less of) some big gains. If they do, however, we’ll miss out on (catch less of) some huge losses…"

It's all about assessing probabilities and investing accordingly -- while at all times remaining flexible and open-minded... 

I suspect that the word "bubble" has appeared on this blog in 2020 every bit as much as (if not more than) it did in our client communications in 1999 or 2000. 

If you're curious as to how bubbles are formed, this video illustrates it perfectly. Listen closely to the narrator up to the 1:26 point:

                                                       HT: Darius Dale

Have a great day!


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