Thursday, September 22, 2022

Morning Note and a Fed Day Analysis (video)

Yesterday's market action was something to behold! As for equities, they were down notably on the Fed's interest rate announcement and statement, then an impressive (although with volatile swings) rally during Powell's press conference, then smashing lower into the close.

The main message in this morning's note -- where I share some highlights from Nick's and my conversation during the Fed event, and where I express my interpretation of the underlying message delivered by Powell during the press conference, some historical context, the constraints facing the Fed as we see them, and a technical look at stocks -- comes to you via video. 

Note: As for this morning's action, equity futures went from notably red overnight to green upon Japan intervening into the currency market to support the yen (action not seen in the past 24 years). They're, however, trending a bit lower as I type (20 minutes before the open).

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Asian equities followed US's lead overnight, with all but 4 of the 16 markets we track closing lower.

Europe's struggling so far this morning as well, with 14 of the 19 bourses we follow trading down as I type.

US stocks are lower to start the session: Dow down 50 points (0.17%), SP500 down 0.24%, SP500 Equal Weight down 0.31%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.29%, Nasdaq Comp down 0.31%, Russell 2000 down 0.56%.

The VIX sits at 27.79, down 0.71%.

Oil futures are up 1.82%, gold's up 0.22%, silver's up 0.48%, copper futures are up 1.00% and the ag complex (DBA) is up 0.15%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is up 0.40%

Among our 35 core positions (excluding options hedges, cash and short-term bond ETF), 15 -- led by energy stocks, base metals futures, base metals miners, MP Materials and Brazil equities -- are in the green so far this morning. The losers are being led lower by treasury bonds, AMD, Dutch Bros, defense stocks and industrial stocks.

"What I try to do in my trades is look for disconfirming evidence. It’s a very difficult practice and I have to continually train myself to ask why I believe something is going to go down, not why it should go up."

--Jim Leitner

Have a great day!


  1. GM Marty,
    The video is not long at all. It is just right. I like how you explain the market reactions to Fed Powell speech. And I do agree that Nick is a genius and very tech-savvy (2 thumbs up). You are right that the market has some more room to drop before we can call it the bottom.