Sunday, September 25, 2022

Quote for the Next Bull Market -- OR -- As (If) You Worry Your Way Through What's to Come

Clients, you've all heard me say during our review meetings that -- while we remain humble, open minded and offer no guarantees -- I probably have more conviction with regard to how we are/will be allocating assets with a 5+ year time horizon than I believe I have at any time during my 38-year career. Followed by "the next 5+ (or 15+) weeks or months are anybody's guess (uncertain, to put it mildly)."

Thing (critical thing) is, in our evolving view the next bull market will be vastly different in terms of where the money will be made (asset classes, sectors and regions of the world) than the last.

I.e., I could not agree more with the following from a brilliant macro thinker:

"The reality is we are at a secular turning point, in my opinion. We've been saying that for a couple of years, we think that will continue... At a major turning point there are major opportunities."

"A lot of the things that've gone one way for forty years are now going to go the opposite way... Energy in 1980 was 33% of the S&P, hard to imagine, it's 3.5% right now, up from 2... I'm not saying we're going to 33, but we're sure as hell going a lot higher than 3.5%. And that's just one example."

"It's gonna be little harder. But if you're smart about it, and you think about it, and you do your homework, there are much more relative value opportunities in this market than there has been for a long long time.

--Cem Karsan

Keep the above firmly in mind as (if) you worry your way through what's left to come of the current bear market. 

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