Stock Market Snapshot (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Where's Waldo?

Yesterday's final look at Q2 GDP came in unchanged at -0.6%, with personal consumption besting consensus expectations with a 2.0% annual increase. Initial jobless claims continue to defy the recession narrative, with a sub-200k print for last week. 

Morning Note: Train Wrecks

This from Bloomberg's David Finnerty last evening pretty well sums up the consensus among macro gurus with regard to yesterday's action in the pound:

Stock Market Snapshot: Getting Crowded on the Bear Side of the Boat (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Analysts Getting the Message

Equity futures were nicely green last evening, that is until word hit the wire that Apple instructed its suppliers to pull back on iPhone 14 production, citing reduced demand... On that, futures promptly rolled over.

Recall from our September 20 morning note:

Morning Note: Another Bull Bites the Dust

Okay, so, the June low in stocks wasn't, on a closing basis, the ultimate low after all -- not after yesterday. Yesterday's session confirms the present bear market is still alive and well, making it the 12th longest in history, although the 24% decline (SP500) makes it, frankly, benign, thus far, in the grand historical scheme of things. Even our own (subject to change) downside target doesn't get us to -30%... 

Just throwing that out there...

Morning Note: Taking the Fed at Their Word

No fewer than a dozen (voting and non-voting) Fed board members will be speaking this week... It'll be interesting to see which, if any, of them will waiver from their hawkishness -- as, indeed, they continue to tighten the monetary screws on an already weakening economy.

Quote for the Next Bull Market -- OR -- As (If) You Worry Your Way Through What's to Come

Clients, you've all heard me say during our review meetings that -- while we remain humble, open minded and offer no guarantees -- I probably have more conviction with regard to how we are/will be allocating assets with a 5+ year time horizon than I believe I have at any time during my 38-year career. Followed by "the next 5+ (or 15+) weeks or months are anybody's guess (uncertain, to put it mildly)."

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Equal Odds (technically-speaking), Short-Term...

Check this out...

The circled area in the graph below captures a notable move in the futures market night before last:

The white line represents the SP500 E-mini future contract, the blue is the US dollar index... Yeah, stocks were still reeling in the after hours session following the US Fed decision day. Until, that is, the Bank of Japan stepped into the currency market and sold dollars/bought yen -- sparking an impressive, although unsustainable, rally in equities. 

Morning Note and a Fed Day Analysis (video)

Yesterday's market action was something to behold! As for equities, they were down notably on the Fed's interest rate announcement and statement, then an impressive (although with volatile swings) rally during Powell's press conference, then smashing lower into the close.

Morning Note: Key Highlights

Yeah, it's Fed decision day, and let's just say we've beaten that horse aplenty herein of late... We'll tackle the outcome, and the market reaction, in tomorrow's note.

For today, let's revisit some key highlights from our latest messaging:

Market Snapshot, and What the Fed's Up Against (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: "Fanciful"

Yes, tomorrow's Fed decision is a biggy for near-term market direction. But of course it's beyond the near-term that we're ultimately concerned with... As I hear myself repeating during virtually every client review meeting these days, we -- as we see the world at this juncture -- have high conviction with regard to our present strategy on a 5-year time horizon. It's the next 5 (or 15) weeks or months that remain notably precarious in our view.

Morning Note: Experiences vs Exercise Equipment

Last Tuesday's CPI number sent a jolt through the markets and had pundits talking up a 1% rate hike come this Wednesday. While such odds immediately popped higher (pricing in a 34% chance) in Fed funds futures, they've calmed back down since to a roughly 21% chance as I type.

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: No Tailwind From Good News....

From yesterday's note:

"As for this morning's data releases, three things of note: "Headline" retail sales for August came in above expectations (although, "core", not so much), which supports our mild-recession thesis, but of course doesn't quell concerns over inflation... Same can be said about a weekly jobless claims number that came in lower for the 5th straight week..."

Morning Note: The Retail Investor Force

 I expressed the following in yesterday's morning note:

"...we've come full circle. Globalization has, at least politically-speaking, run its course -- while wealth and income inequality have reached historic proportions. Therefore, the kinds of labor/consumer-friendly, protectionist, inflation-stoking policies that predated Volker, Regan and Thatcher are resoundingly back in vogue."

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Icing on the Cake

So, yesterday delivered the worst day for the S&P 500 since June 2020... That has to be a monster setback, right? 

Well, not to downplay the pain, but that -4.32% move took us merely back to last Tuesday...

Morning Note: Interesting Action

Yesterday's action was interesting from the get go... Not so much the follow-through from Friday's rally, but the fact that the VIX (tracks the implied volatility price in SP500 options) stayed notably bid start to finish.

Let's compare yesterday's action in the VIX (bottom panel, SP500 on top) to Friday's...

Morning Note: Beyond CPI

Markets will be intently focused on tomorrow's CPI report... Anticipation of a softer-than-forecast reading coming off of uber-bearish investor sentiment (along with a large net short position among SP500 futures speculators, and options dealers positioned to provide some oomph should the index push above 4,000) combined last Friday to offer up a preview of what to expect should, indeed, August's inflation come in the least bit cool. Of course a hot reading would likely inspire the opposite.

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

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Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Consumers' Hanging In...

As we've stated numerous times herein, and in our video updates, of late, our general conditions assessment has it that odds presently favor recession over continued expansion in the coming months. However, we -- at this juncture -- anticipate that it will be what we'll call your garden variety (if not historically mild) contraction.

Morning Note: Obsessively Openminded!

Yesterday's rally was certainly impressive, and broad based (only 26 of the SP500 constituents closed down on the day), amid decent volume (9% above 20-day average).

So what gives?

Morning Note: Service Sector Holding Up, Per ISM Anyway

The closely watched ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Services Survey (a component of our PWA Index) results for August were released yesterday; the following, taken from the report, sums it up nicely:

Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Latest Key Insights

We'll begin our commentary during this holiday-shortened week with some key insights from our latest messaging:

Economic and Stock Market Snapshot (video)

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust:

Attention Non-Client subscribers: Nothing in this video should be construed as investment advice. The examples expressed relate to portfolio management we perform on behalf of our clients, and, again, under no circumstances are they to be considered recommendations to the viewer.

Morning Note: Market-Friendly Jobs Report, Oof!! -- And -- Copper!!!

This morning's August jobs report came in close enough to expectations (which, btw, is consistent with our ultimately mild recession narrative) to not roil markets -- at least, given the pre-market reaction, initially. In fact, equity futures actually rallied as the details came through. My guess would be that the drop in hourly earnings, the .2% rise in the unemployment rate, and the rise in the labor force participation rate -- all being potentially disinflationary -- are the factors that have the market celebrating, at least on the announcement...

Chart of the Day

Wow! What an intraday turnaround (although there's still 40 minutes left in the session).

Morning Note: All the Fed's Fingers and Toes

During our daily portfolio and macro session yesterday morning, Nick and I discussed the dynamics around the 2008 "Great Financial Crisis" and the milder early-00s (tech bubble) recession, and acknowledged the adage "generals are always fighting the last battle." 

I.e., the powers-that-be are forever reacting to and regulating conditions past in their efforts to influence conditions present and future. Inevitably engendering what becomes your proverbial finger in the dike metaphor: